Social Distancing Scenarios

Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

• Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
• % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
• % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-05-26) level of social distancing / contact rate

Scenario	Percent orig. R0	Percent increase from current R0	Effective R0
0	22.30%	0.00%	0.92
1	35.30%	58.30%	1.46
2	48.20%	116.10%	1.99
3	61.20%	174.40%	2.52
4	74.10%	232.30%	3.05
5	87.00%	290.10%	3.59
6	100.00%	348.40%	4.12

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts

Scenario 0

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 0.92
• % of original R0: 22.3
• % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.46
• % of original R0: 35.3
• % Increase from current: 58.3

Scenario 2

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.99
• % of original R0: 48.2
• % Increase from current: 116.1

Scenario 3

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.52
• % of original R0: 61.2
• % Increase from current: 174.4

Scenario 4

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.05
• % of original R0: 74.1
• % Increase from current: 232.3

Scenario 5

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.59
• % of original R0: 87
• % Increase from current: 290.1

Scenario 6

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 4.12
• % of original R0: 100
• % Increase from current: 348.4